Technical Analysis The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians Second.pdf
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1、TECHNICALANALYSISThis page intentionally left blank Download at TECHNICALANALYSISTHECOMPLETERESOURCEFORFINANCIALMARKETTECHNICIANSSECONDEDITIONCharles D.Kirkpatrick II,CMTJulie Dahlquist,Ph.D.,CMTCharles D.Kirkpatrick II,CMTJulie Dahlquist,Ph.D.,CMTDownload at Vice President,Publisher:Tim MooreAssoci
2、ate Publisher and Director of Marketing:Amy NeidlingerExecutive Editor:Jim BoydEditorial Assistant:Pamela BolandOperations Manager:Gina KanouseSenior Marketing Manager:Julie PhiferPublicity Manager:Laura CzajaAssistant Marketing Manager:Megan ColvinCover Designer:Chuti PrasertsithManaging Editor:Kri
3、sty HartProject Editor:Betsy HarrisCopy Editor:Karen AnnettProofreader:Kathy RuizIndexer:Erika MillenCompositor:Bronkella PublishingManufacturing Buyer:Dan Uhrig 2011 by Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as FT PressUpper Saddle River,New Jersey 07458FT Press offers excellent discounts on this book wh
4、en ordered in quantity for bulk purchases or special sales.For moreinformation,please contact U.S.Corporate and Government Sales,1-800-382-3419,.For sales outside the U.S.,please contact International Sales at .Company and product names mentioned herein are the trademarks or registered trademarks of
5、 their respectiveowners.All rights reserved.No part of this book may be reproduced,in any form or by any means,without permission inwriting from the publisher.Printed in the United States of AmericaFirst Printing November 2010ISBN-10:0-13-705944-2ISBN-13:978-0-13-705944-7Pearson Education LTD.Pearso
6、n Education Australia PTY,Limited.Pearson Education Singapore,Pte.Ltd.Pearson Education Asia,Ltd.Pearson Education Canada,Ltd.Pearson Educacin de Mexico,S.A.de C.V.Pearson EducationJapanPearson Education Malaysia,Pte.Ltd.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataKirkpatrick,Charles D.Technic
7、al analysis:the complete resource for financial market technicians/Charles D.Kirkpatrick and JulieDahlquist.2nd ed.p.cm.Includes bibliographical references and index.ISBN 978-0-13-705944-7(hbk.:alk.paper)1.Technical analysis(Investment analysis)2.Investment analysis.I.Dahlquist,Julie R.,1962-II.Titl
8、e.HG4529.K564 2011332.632042dc222010032991Download at T Thriwi it th h t th he e u un nd de er rs st ta an nd di in ng g t th ha at t n ne ei it th he er r t th he e a au ut th ho or r n no or r t th he e p pu ub bl li is sh he er r i is s e en ng ga ag ge ed d i in nhi is s b bo oo ok k i is s s so
9、 ol ld d w en nd de er ri in ng g l le eg ga al l,a ac cc co ou un nt ti in ng g,o or r o ot th he er r p pr ro of fe es ss si io on na al l s se er rv vi ic ce es s o or r a ad dv vi ic ce e b by y p pu ub bl li is sh hi in ng g t th hi is s b bo oo ok k.Ere Ea ac ch hin nd di iv vi id du ua al l s
10、 si it tu ua at ti io on n i is s u un ni iq qu ue e.T Th hu us s,i if f l le eg ga al l o or r f fi in na an nc ci ia al l a ad dv vi ic ce e o or r o ot th he er r e ex xp pe er rt t a as ss si is st ta an nc ce e i is s r re eq qu ui ir re ed di in n a a s sp pe ec ci if fi ic c s si it tu ua at
11、ti io on n,t th he e s se er rv vi ic ce es s o of f a a c co omsamp pe et te en nt t p pr ro of fe es ss si io on na al l s sh ho ou ul ld d b be e s so ou ug gh ht t t to o e en ns su ur re e t th ha at t t th he e si it tu ua at ti io on n h ha as s b be ee en n e ev va al lu ua at te ed d c ca a
12、r re ef fu ul ll ly y a an nd d a ap pp pr ro op pr ri ia at te el ly y.TmTh he e a au ut th ho or r a an nd d t th he e p pu ub bl li is sh he er r d di is sc cl la ai im li ia ab bi il li it ty y,l lo os ss s,o or r r ri is sk k r re es su ul lt ti in ng g d di ir re ec ct tl ly y o or r i in nd d
13、i ir re ec ct tl ly y,f fr ro oman ny y l m t th he e u us se e o or r a ap pp pl li ic ca at ti io on n o of f a an ny y o of f t th he ec co on nt te en nt ts s o of f t th hi is s b bo oo ok k.Download at This page intentionally left blank Download at To Elliemy precious wife,long-term love and c
14、ompanion,and best friend.CharlieTo Richard,Katherine,and Sepp.JulieDownload at This page intentionally left blank Download at C CONTENTSONTENTSAcknowledgments.xxivAbouAcknowledgments.xxivAbout t the Authors.xxvithe Authors.xxviPart I:IntroductionPart I:Introduction1 1 I INTRODUCTION TO NTRODUCTION T
15、O T TECHNICAL ECHNICAL A ANALYSIS NALYSIS.3.32 2 T THE HE B BASIC ASIC P PRINCIPLE OF RINCIPLE OF T TECHNICAL ECHNICAL A ANALYSISNALYSISTTHE HE T TREND REND.9.9How Does the Technical Analyst Make Money?How Does the Technical Analyst Make Money?.10What Is a Trend?10What Is a Trend?.11How Are Trends I
16、dentified?11How Are Trends Identified?.12Trends Develop from Supply and Demand 12Trends Develop from Supply and Demand.14What Trends Are There?14What Trends Are There?.15What Other Assumptions Do Technical Analysts Make?15What Other Assumptions Do Technical Analysts Make?.17Conclusion 17Conclusion.1
17、9Review Questions 19Review Questions.2020Download at 3 3H HISTORY OF ISTORY OF T TECHNICAL ECHNICAL A ANALYSIS NALYSIS.23.23Early Financial Markets and Exchanges Early Financial Markets and Exchanges.23Modern Technical Analysis 23Modern Technical Analysis.26Current Advances in Technical Analysis 26C
18、urrent Advances in Technical Analysis.30304 4T THE HE T TECHNICAL ECHNICAL A ANALYSIS NALYSIS C CONTROVERSY ONTROVERSY.33.33Do Markets Follow a Random Walk?Do Markets Follow a Random Walk?.3535Fat Tails.36Drawdowns.37Proportions of Scale.39Can Past Patterns Be Used to Predict the Future?Can Past Pat
19、terns Be Used to Predict the Future?.40What About Market Efficiency?40What About Market Efficiency?.4141New Information.42Are Investors Rational?.46Will Arbitrage Keep Prices in Equilibrium?.47Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis.49Pragmatic Criticisms
20、of Technical Analysis 49Pragmatic Criticisms of Technical Analysis.50What Is the Empirical Support for Technical Analysis?50What Is the Empirical Support for Technical Analysis?.52Conclusion 52Conclusion.52Review Questions 52Review Questions.5353Part II:Markets and Market IndicatorsPart II:Markets a
21、nd Market Indicators5 5A AN N O OVERVIEW OF VERVIEW OF MMARKETS ARKETS.57.57In What Types of Markets Can Technical Analysis Be Used?In What Types of Markets Can Technical Analysis Be Used?.58Types of Contracts58Types of Contracts.5959Cash Market.60Derivative Markets.62Swaps and Forwards.66x Contents
22、Download at How Does a Market Work?How Does a Market Work?.66Who Are the Market Players?66Who Are the Market Players?.68How Is the Market Measured?68How Is the Market Measured?.6969Price-Weighted Average.70Market Capitalization Weighted Average.71Equally Weighted(or Geometric)Average.72Conclusion Co
23、nclusion.73Review Questions 73Review Questions.73736 6 D DOW OW T THEORY HEORY.75.75Dow Theory Theorems Dow Theory Theorems.7878The Primary Trend.80The Secondary Trend.81The Minor Trend.81Concept of Confirmation.82Importance of Volume.83Criticisms of the Dow Theory Criticisms of the Dow Theory.85Con
24、clusion 85Conclusion.86Review Questions 86Review Questions.86867 7S SENTIMENTENTIMENT.89.89What Is Sentiment?What Is Sentiment?.90Market Players and Sentiment 90Market Players and Sentiment.91How Does Human Bias Affect Decision Making?91How Does Human Bias Affect Decision Making?.92Crowd Behavior an
25、d the Concept of Contrary Opinion 92Crowd Behavior and the Concept of Contrary Opinion.95How Is Sentiment of Uninformed Players Measured?95How Is Sentiment of Uninformed Players Measured?.9696Sentiment Indicators Based on Options and Volatility.97Polls.102Other Measures of Contrary Opinion.107Unquan
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