Statistics Concepts and Controversies, 7th Edition.pdf
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1、This page intentionally left blankStatisticsConcepts and ControversiesSenior Publisher:Craig BleyerPublisher:Ruth BaruthExecutive Marketing Manager:Jennifer SomervilleDevelopment Editors:Shona Burke,Anne Scanlan-RohrerSenior Media Editor:Roland CheyneyAssistant Editor:Brian TedescoEditorial Assistan
2、t:Katrina WilhelmMarketing Assistant:Eileen RothschildPhoto Editor:Ted SzczepanskiPhoto Researcher:Julie TesserText Designer:Vicki TomaselliCover Designer:Paula Jo SmithSenior Project Editor:Mary Louise ByrdIllustrations:ICC Macmillan Inc.,Mark ChickinelliProduction Manager:Paul W.RohloffComposition
3、:ICC Macmillan Inc.Printing and Binding:RR DonnellyMinitab is a registered trademark of Minitab,Inc.SPSS is a registered trademark of SPSS Inc.Library of Congress Control Number:2008932369ISBN-13:978-1-4292-2991-3ISBN-10:1-4292-2991-82009 by W.H.Freeman and Company.All rights reserved.Printed in the
4、 United States of AmericaFirst printingW.H.Freeman and Company41 Madison AvenueNew York,NY StatisticsConcepts and ControversiesSEVENTH EDITIONDavid S.MoorePurdue UniversityWilliam I.NotzThe Ohio State UniversityW.H.Freeman and CompanyNew YorkThis page intentionally left blank Brief ContentsPartIProd
5、ucing Data11Where Do Data Come From?32Samples,Good and Bad213What Do Samples Tell Us?354Sample Surveys in the Real World575Experiments,Good and Bad816Experiments in the Real World1017Data Ethics1238Measuring1439Do the Numbers Make Sense?165Part I Review181PartIIOrganizing Data19110 Graphs,Good and B
6、ad19311Displaying Distributions with Graphs21712 Describing Distributions with Numbers23913 Normal Distributions26514 Describing Relationships:Scatterplots and Correlation28715 Describing Relationships:Regression,Prediction,and Causation31116 The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics339Part
7、 II Review359vviBrief ContentsPartIIIChance37317 Thinking about Chance37518 Probability Models39519 Simulation41120 The House Edge:Expected Values429Part III Review445PartIVInference45321 What Is a Confidence Interval?45522 What Is a Test of Significance?48123 Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference5
8、0524 Two-Way Tables and the Chi-Square Test521Part IV Review545This material is optional.ContentsTo the Teacher:Statistics as a Liberal DisciplinexiiiApplications IndexxxiPrelude:Making Sense of StatisticsxxviiStatistics and You:What Lies Ahead in This BookxxxiiiAbout the AuthorsxxxvPartIProducing D
9、ata11Where Do Data Come From?3Case Study 3Talking about data:Individuals and variables 4Observational studies 6Sample surveys 8Census 11Experiments 12Statistics in Summary 14Case StudyEvaluated 14Chapter 1 Exercises 15Exploring the Web 19Notes and Data Sources 192Samples,Good and Bad21Case Study 21H
10、ow to sample badly 21Simple randomsamples 23Can you trust a sample?28Statistics in Summary 29Case Study Evaluated 30Chapter 2 Exercises 30Exploring theWeb34 Notes and Data Sources 343What Do Samples Tell Us?35Case Study 35From sample to population 36Samplingvariability 37Margin of error and all that
11、 41Confidencestatements 43Sampling from large populations 45StatisticalControversies:Should Election Polls Be Banned?46Statistics inSummary 47Case Study Evaluated 48Chapter 3 Exercises 48Exploring the Web 54Notes and Data Sources 554Sample Surveys in the Real World57Case Study 57How sample surveys g
12、o wrong 58Samplingerrors 58Nonsampling errors 60Wording questions 63How to live with nonsampling errors 65Sample design in the realworld 65Questions to ask before you believe a poll 70Statistics inSummary 70Case Study Evaluated 71Chapter 4 Exercises 71Exploring the Web 78Notes and Data Sources 79vii
13、viiiContents5Experiments,Good and Bad81Case Study 81Talking about experiments 81How to experimentbadly 83Randomized comparative experiments 85The logic ofexperimental design 88Statistical significance 90How to livewith observational studies 91Statistics in Summary 93CaseStudy Evaluated 93Chapter 5 E
14、xercises 94Exploring the Web 99Notes and Data Sources 1006Experiments in the Real World101Case Study 101Equal treatment for all 101Double-blindexperiments 102Refusals,nonadherers,and dropouts 104Can we generalize?106Experimental design in the real world 108Matched pairs and block designs 110Statisti
15、cal Controversies:Is Itor Isnt It a Placebo?113Statistics in Summary 114Case StudyEvaluated 114Chapter 6 Exercises 115Exploring the Web 120Notes and Data Sources 1217Data Ethics123Case Study 123First principles 123Institutional reviewboards 125Informed consent 125Confidentiality 127Clinicaltrials 12
16、8Statistical Controversies:Hope for Sale?130Behavioral and social science experiments 132Statistics inSummary 134Case Study Evaluated 134Chapter 7 Exercises 135Exploring the Web 141Notes and Data Sources 1418Measuring143Case Study 143Measurement basics 143Know yourvariables 145Measurements valid and
17、 invalid 147StatisticalControversies:SAT Exams in College Admissions 150Measurements accurate and inaccurate 151Improving reliability,reducing bias 153Pity the poor psychologist 155Statistics inSummary 157Case Study Evaluated 158Chapter 8 Exercises 158Exploring the Web 163Notes and Data Sources 1639
18、Do the Numbers Make Sense?165Case Study 165What didnt they tell us?165Are the numbersconsistent with each other?167Are the numbers plausible?169Are the numbers too good to be true?169Is the arithmeticright?170Is there a hidden agenda?173Statistics inSummary 174Case Study Evaluated 174Chapter 9Exerci
19、ses 175Exploring the Web 179Notes and DataSources 180ContentsixPart I Review181Part I Summary 182Part I Review Exercises 183Part I Projects 188Notes and Data Sources 190PartIIOrganizing Data19110Graphs,Good and Bad193Case Study 193Data tables 193Pie charts and bar graphs 195Beware the pictogram 198C
20、hange over time:Line graphs 199Watch those scales!202Making good graphs 205Statisticsin Summary 207Case Study Evaluated 207Chapter 10Exercises 208Exploring the Web 216Notes and DataSources 21611Displaying Distributions with Graphs217Case Study 217Histograms 217Interpreting histograms 221Stemplots 22
21、6Statistics in Summary 229Case StudyEvaluated 229Chapter 11 Exercises 230Exploring the Web 237Notes and Data Sources 23812Describing Distributions with Numbers239Case Study 239Median and quartiles 240The five-numbersummary and boxplots 244Statistical Controversies:IncomeInequality 247Mean and standa
22、rd deviation 249Choosingnumerical descriptions 253Statistics in Summary 255Case StudyEvaluated 256Chapter 12 Exercises 256Exploring the Web 263Notes and Data Sources 26313Normal Distributions265Case Study 265Density curves 268The center and spread of adensity curve 269Normal distributions 270The 689
23、599.7rule 273Standard scores 275Percentiles of Normaldistributions277Statistics in Summary 278Case StudyEvaluated 279Chapter 13 Exercises 279Exploring theWeb 285Notes and Data Sources 28614Describing Relationships:Scatterplots and Correlation 287Case Study 287Scatterplots 288Interpreting scatterplot
24、s 292Correlation 295Understanding correlation 297Statistics inSummary 300Case Study Evaluated 300Chapter 14Exercises 301Exploring the Web 309Notes and DataSources 309This material is optional.xContents15Describing Relationships:Regression,Prediction,and Causation311Case Study 311Regression lines 312
25、Regression equations 314Understanding prediction 316Correlation and regression 318The question of causation 320Statistical Controversies:GunControl and Crime 324Evidence for causation 325Statisticsin Summary 326Case Study Evaluated 326Chapter 15Exercises 327Exploring the Web 336Notes and DataSources
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