1、外文文献： Central and Eastern European countries is how to use FDI to develop employmentJustin BlairDate of Publication: 4 August 2009A Central and Eastern European countries, FDI, output and employment data description(A) changes in economic growth and employment trends describedFrom a planned economy
2、to a market economy at the beginning, most Central and Eastern European countries have experienced serious transformational recession. Starting in 1995, these countries have begun to resume growth in the late 1990s to the beginning of the transition to restore the level of economic development, 1995
3、 to 2007 are in the 3-4.5% growth rate. The resumption of growth accompanied by a substantial increase in productivity, employment has had a profound impact in most countries (especially the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) slow employment growth even at a standstill. Of course, by the different
4、effects of reform rhythm, different country-specific unemployment situation is very different. Hungary and Slovenia in 1995 before the unemployment rate is already high, and then declined. Czech unemployment rate is less than 5% from 1996 to 1999, the rapid rise of nearly 10%, mainly by its lagging
5、economic reforms and the end of the 1990s due to the financial crisis. Poland and Slovakia, the unemployment rate in the early 1990s has been at a high level, even in the late 1990s to 20%, followed by decline, even so, in 2005 the level of unemployment in these two countries remains 18% and 16%.Wea
6、k employment situation with countries in stark contrast, since 1995 the GDP of these countries, especially in the economic value have experienced substantial growth. Compare Figure 1 and Figure 2, it is clear that changes in the rate of employment growth trajectory and the trajectory of the economy
7、does not match, employment growth lagged behind economic growth, there is no doubt that the employment problem for the Central and Eastern European countries are still facing an economic development major challenge.(Two) FDI, industrial structure and employment structure descriptionThe added value o
8、f a structure of three industriesAfter transformation of Central and Eastern European countries in economic development presents a clear go farming trend, either output or employment (see Table 1 and Table 2), the agricultural sector in the economic development of the position are very limited, and
9、the proportion showing downward trend, as of 2007, studied in this paper seven in Central and Eastern European countries, agriculture accounted for the proportion of total economic value added is below 5%. In addition to the Czech Republic, the manufacturing output in all countries have different de
10、grees of gravity of decline, the proportion is less than 25%. With agriculture and manufacturing in stark contrast, the service sector in economic development, a significant increase in the proportion of the average total economic added value accounted for more than 60%.Two three industrial employme
11、nt structureIn the planned economy, the service industry gave way to industrial and agricultural, so the period of economic restructuring, an important feature of labor from agriculture and industry to services flows. The proportion of service sector employment in all countries increased significant
12、ly and accounted for more than 60% were. Latvia, the lowest proportion of service sector employment, 58.7%. Therefore, regardless of the structure of output or employment from a structural point of view, the CEE countries have already entered service-oriented development stage.3 FDI in the manufactu
13、ring and distribution servicesFrom the industrial distribution, since 1997, national service sector FDI overall upward trend (except for Latvia and Lithuania), in which Poland and Slovenia rising fastest. Services FDI FDI stock accounted for the proportion of each country were more than 40%, of whic
14、h the highest proportion of Hungary, reaching 88%. It is noteworthy that, although the proportion of national downward trend in FDI in manufacturing industry, but the economy still occupies an important position. Services and manufacturing FDI of these countries to attract FDI accounted for the prop
15、ortion of total above 80%, indicating that these two industries than in other sectors attracting FDI is very limited. Comprehensive preceding analysis we can see that the proportion of manufacturing industry in attracting FDI in the economy and manufacturing output and employment share is not very c
16、onsistent.Second, the empirical analysisIn our empirical study, respectively, with value-added manufacturing and services value added to the total value added ratio change indicates changes in industrial structure, but with manufacturing employment and employment services employment to the total emp
17、loyment rate of change indicates structure. Employment indicators expressed in the literature there are usually two, one is to use employment statistics, and another is to choose the number of hours of social labor. In order to accurately measure the social demand for labor, we use social labor hour
18、s as a measure of employment. FDI, employment and value-added data are derived from Eurostat and the EU klems database, the data used for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania seven countries 1997-2006 panel data.(A) FDI total scale and the scale of employment an
19、d employment structureIn order to investigate the scale of change on the scale of employment FDI and employment structure changes, we build the model as follows:zjyit = tntfitt + eit mjyit = tntfitt + eitsjyit = tntfit + eitmjyblit = tntfit + eit sjyblit = tntfit + eit Where the subscript i indicate
20、s the country, t represents time; tf represents the total stock of FDI society; 2jy, mjy, sjy denote the total social employment logarithmic scale, logarithmic scale manufacturing employment and employment services logarithmic scale ; mjyb1, sjyb1 represent manufacturing and service sector employmen
21、t accounted for the proportion of total employment in society.Panel data analysis includes both cross-sectional and time series of factors factors, so the parameter estimates may be affected by different factors simultaneously. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data are generally fixed and random effect
22、s in two forms. In this paper, the Hausman test method for determination of the model. Use measurement software stata 10.0 of Eq (1) to (5) for empirical analysis, regression results are as follows:Looking at the results from the regression, FDI expansion does not significantly expand the size of th
23、e total social employment. From the industry perspective, FDI scale for each 1% increase in manufacturing employment will be significantly decreased 0.053%, while the services sector increased significantly by 0.065% scale. Meanwhile, we can clearly see, FDI expansion can significantly reduce manufa
24、cturing employment rate and improve service employment rate, employment rate and FDI two departments correlation coefficients were -0.012 and 0.035. Seen in Central and Eastern Europe, FDI increase in the total employment and social expansion of the total between the two are not necessarily linked.
25、But there is indeed a rising scale of FDI to promote economic and social benefit to the service-oriented changes in the employment structure, in the process, the manufacturing sectors ability to absorb employment declined. Meanwhile, we should also see that the optimal social structure of employment
26、 and employment growth stagnation exist simultaneously.(Two) FDI industry structure and employment and productivityFrom the industry point of view to the distribution of FDI on employment, we have established the following model to further differentiate manufacturing FDI and FDI on the employment im
27、pact of the structure and size of employment (measured as above):mjyit = tnmfit + eit mjblit = tnmfit + eit msclit = tnmfit + eitsjyit = tnfit + eit sjyblit = tnsfit + eit ssclit = tnsfit + eit Where: mf, sf FDI in manufacturing and services, respectively, the scale; mscl, sscl represent value added
28、 manufacturing and services expressed in hours of labor productivity. Regression results are as follows:From the regression results, we can clearly see: First, the manufacturing sector, the industry absorbed the scale of FDI on manufacturing employment has significant negative correlation between FD
29、I in the sector every 1% increase in employment will decline 0.038%. Manufacturing FDI and manufacturing employment accounted for the proportion of total employment in society as a significant negative correlation, each 1% increase in manufacturing FDI, accounting for the decline in manufacturing em
30、ployment 0.009%. Meanwhile, manufacturing FDI on productivity in the manufacturing sector increased significantly positive correlation, the correlation coefficient was 0.299, indicating that the entry of FDI on labor productivity in the manufacturing sector has a significant role in promoting. Secon
31、dly, the scale of employment services FDI and services no significant correlation. However, FDI proportion of employment in the sector for growth and productivity gains have significant role in boosting the coefficients were 0.024 and 0.284.On the whole, manufacturing FDI inflows scale not only redu
32、ces the proportion of employment in the manufacturing sector, but also in a more significant reduction in the absolute number of jobs in manufacturing. Although the increase in FDI in services increased services sector accounted for, but the sheer size of the sector employment changes had no signifi
33、cant effect. The two departments have in common is, FDI inflows can greatly improve labor productivity in this sector.(Three) the technical structure of employment changesFrom the table we can clearly see that from 1995 to 2005 among the five countries in Central and Eastern Europe, countries experi
34、enced negative growth of total labor time (except Hungary), especially from 2000 to 2005, this trend has been further strengthened, Visible, countries are in a shrinking labor market. But it is worth noting that the growth of skilled labor is always positive, especially in the 2000-2005 growing fast
35、er, and even much higher than its value-added growth. On the other hand, almost all countries with low levels of education is always negative labor demand, demand growth rate remained at -2% to -8%. This change reflects precisely these national technical changes in the structure and industrial struc
36、ture to keep the changes in technology-intensive industries.Third, economic growth and employment stagnation further explanationFirst, the value-added growth is mainly affected by the substantial increase in labor productivity, the growth in demand has not kept pace rapid productivity growth. With T
37、able 6 we can see that the rapid growth of value added is mainly affected by the substantial increase in labor productivity, which makes these countries began to catch up with a highly developed Western European countries in the process. However, the growth in demand has not kept pace rapid producti
38、vity growth, employment and working hours so that both appear to reduce (originally Hungary did not occur this phenomenon, but in the year 2000 to 2005, the Hungarian working hours are shortened). In other words, although economic growth is very fast, but due to higher labor productivity growth, mak
39、ing the overall economic growth has been insufficient to drive employment growth, which is caused by a negative employment growth in the region, one of the main.Second, the presence of labor supply and demand mismatch technical structure, and with the increasing trend of economic development. Huge p
40、roductivity growth, compared to Western European countries, the cost advantage has also attracted a lot of FDI and outsourcing business to undertake the development, which is also concentrated in high-tech manufacturing sector. Despite the high-tech sector productivity increased rapidly, but the ind
41、ustry faster wage growth, making the unit labor cost structure and relative labor costs have changed. This means that Central and Eastern European countries, comparative cost advantage is gradually transferred to the high-tech sector. Central and Eastern European countries is the large number of ski
42、lled workers and well-educated technicians supports this industrial restructuring.Third, the high rate of employment growth in emerging industries in the job market in the weight too low to lead the community to improve the overall level of employment. From Table 7, we can see some emerging industri
43、es such as electrical machinery, postal and telecommunications services, financial and business services in these five countries have experienced little higher employment growth. However, employment in these industries is relatively low ratio (Poland and Hungary electronic machinery, postal and tele
44、communications sector employment rates were 2.3% and 5.6%, Poland and the Czech Republics financial and business services sector employment rate stood at 5.5 percent and 9.1 %). So, despite experiencing a rapid employment growth, creating jobs in these industries is very limited absolute size.Fourth
45、, the labor factor inputs overall contribution to economic growth is negative, but the structural changes in the labor contribution to economic growth overall is positive. As we have seen, although in different countries and different industries, industrial structure is similar to the importance, va
46、lue-added growth rate in different countries are not the same. Table 7 analyzes the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia four major countries in Eastern Europe, the industry added value of various factors on the growth rate of the contribution. In the growth accounting framework, value-added
47、 growth rate of change in all factor inputs sum, such as labor input by the total labor hours and labor structure measure, labor and capital contribution partly outside the multifactor productivity measure.Table 7 analyzes the labor factor inputs, working hours, labor and capital inputs for structur
48、al changes in the growth rate of value-added contribution. Among them, the contribution of labor input = the contribution of working hours + labor structure contribution (mainly refers to the contribution of labor employment structure towards a higher marginal productivity of the industry shift), th
49、at is, the economic value of labor input The effects can be decomposed as the total change in the amount of labor time and labor changes in the structure factor of two. As previously mentioned, in addition to Hungary, the employment growth in several other countries are negative, so we can determine the labor factor inputs for these emerging market economies contribute to economic value added growth is negative. The Czech Republic and Poland is indeed the case, in Slovenia, employment growth
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